The UAAP men’s basketball Final 4 starts this Thursday, and it feels a little strange for our Green Archers to be relegated to the role of spectators at these playoffs. Ateneo dominated most of the eliminations to top the list, Adamson performed according to pre-season expectations to place second, FEU was inconsistent and slid down to 3rd, and UST grabbed the last slot with a good finishing kick in the second round. Here’s our preview for both match-ups.
Ateneo (13-1) vs UST (8-6)
Season series:
1st: Ateneo 66 UST 53
2nd: Ateneo 82 UST 57
This year, the Blue Eagles have been playing like a team on a mission – nothing less than a fourth-straight UAAP championship will do. For the past seasons they have successfully managed to add the right pieces to make them the most consistent and diligent team. They have basically steam-rolled past the competition, winning by an average margin of 15 points. Though they were blown out by Adamson in their last game, the Blue Eagles are just too good to fall apart at this stage of the tournament.
UST has been one of the surprises this season. After a sluggish first round, the Growling Tigers caught fire towards the end of the eliminations and at one point even had a chance to nail the second spot in the semis. They’re not considered to have the depth of talent like the other teams but they make that up with hard work and determination.
Key Match-ups
Greg Slaughter vs Karim Abdul – Their team’s fortunes will depend heavily on these two bigmen. Slaughter has been a solid force in the paint while Abdul has been the that low-post threat the Growling Tigers sorely missed since Jervy Cruz left three years ago.
Kiefer Ravena vs Jeric Teng – It’s going to be a duel between these high-scoring guards. Ravena, considered as a cinch to win Rookie of the Year, has been the player everyone expected him to be. Teng on the other hand has emerged as the Tigers top scorer for the past two years. Both players are averaging close to 14 points and 4 rebounds per game.
X-Factors
Ateneo: Nico Salva – The Blue Eagles would need to get steady production from this versatile wingman. Salva is Ateneo’s third leading scorer and his versatility has been a large part to the team’s success. His failure to contribute in their last game against Adamson was one of the factors that led to the loss.
UST: Chris Camus – He is a workhorse on both ends of the floor. You got to love the hustle and energy he brings every game. This season, he added another dimension in his game by improving his outside shot.
The Outcome
The Growling Tigers are no strangers when it comes to Final 4 upsets. They did it back in 1994 and 2006 and on both occasions, they eventually won the title. However, defeating a well-oiled Ateneo squad twice seems to be wishful thinking. Expect the defending three-peat champions to run away with the easy victory here. There’s no stopping the Blue Eagles from entering the Finals and a shot at cementing their place in history.
Adamson (10-4) vs FEU (9-5)
Season series:
1st: Adamson 78 UST 59
2nd: FEU 62 UST 61
After almost two decades of futility, the Falcons have finally found the winning formula. This has got to be strongest Adamson team since 1992 when they had the likes Aquino, Fiehl and Duremdes. The only team to hand Ateneo its first loss of the season, these Falcons are legitimate title contenders.
The Tamaraws were heavily favored this season but somehow struggled especially during the middle part of the tournament. Despite the sidelining of several key stalwarts, FEU was able to muster enough wins down the homestretch to finish third after the elimination round.
Key Match-ups
Lester Alvarez vs RR Garcia – Both are wily guards who can just explode offensively at any time. While Garcia has an advantage in size, Alvarez is the more efficient playmaker and is tops in steals.
Alex Nuyles vs Terrence Romeo – Nuyles has been truly a revelation this year. Not only is he one of the top scorers in the league, he is also among the leaders in the assists category. His athleticism makes him difficult to guard. Romeo, just like Garcia is more of a shooting guard who can torch the defense when he gets his groove from the outside.
X-Factors
Adamson: Eric Camson – Another player who showed tremendous improvement this season. Camson’s rebounding tenacity and soft touch from the perimeter will be very much needed by the Falcons if they intend to go to the finals.
FEU: Aldrech Ramos – With FEU somewhat being a guard-dominated team, Ramos has become a silent operator. The unflashy center is the Tamaraws’ second top scorer and leader in rebounds. Playing in his final year, he will definitely step up his game further to help his team return to the finals.
The Outcome
This is just Adamson’s third time to be in the Final Four and they have not yet won a game in this phase. Though armed with a twice-to-beat advantage, the question remains if the Falcons have what it takes to win when the stakes are at their highest? With many of their starters graduating, this is probably their one best shot to finally end a 34-year title drought.
For FEU, history is not on their side when not having the twice-to-beat. In the 6 times they ranked either 3rd or 4th in the Final Four, they were only able to win a series just once (2000).
Both squads appear to be heavily matched but I’ll give Adamson the slight edge. No doubt, the Falcons are the hungrier team. If the Tamaraws can turn up the tempo, they can probably force a deciding game on Sunday. If that happens, it’s everybody’s ballgame.
The Green Archers will start their UAAP campaign Sunday against the FEU Tamaraws. Game time is at 1PM.
The UE Warriors are officially in rebuilding mode after having lost 8 players from last year – Lee, Martinez, Acibar, Reyes, Resopa, Razon, Ayala, and Hernandez. It will be particularly difficult to replace Lee, Acibar and Martinez, who were among the best shooters in the Warrior lineup. UE failed to make the playoffs last year. The Warriors seem to have a smallish lineup, so expect them to play an uptempo game with lots of small-ball lineups.
